Federal Reserve policy makers will still be injecting roughly $1 trillion into markets during the time it takes to start and end the tapering of $120 billion in monthly bond purchases, according to strategists.
That assumes an announcement comes in December and it takes eight months to complete the pullback, strategists Teresa Ho and Alex Roever at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
wrote in a note released Sunday, reiterating similar views they made on Aug. 6.
Amid this week’s start to the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual symposium, investors will be keeping a close eye on when and by how much the central bank might be paring back on its purchases — which many regard as scaling back on stimulus. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
and S&P 500 index
booked their worst declines in a month on Aug. 18 after Fed minutes showed most officials backing a start of tapering this year.
But as JPMorgan’s note points out, the Fed would still be supplying stimulus — just at a reduced pace — and the abundance of a cash already in the system will still keep growing.
“We continue to think a tapering announcement would come in December, though the risk of an announcement in November has increased,” the strategists wrote. “Realistically, the timing difference between November and December is $120bn/mo. more in asset purchases.” Assuming the Fed finishes tapering next August, “this still means that we could see anywhere from $850bn to $1tn of additional liquidity being injected in the financial system.”
The strategists also weighed in on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s future, by reiterating JPMorgan’s view that there’s “a significant chance” he won’t be renominated when his term ends in February 2022.